Winter storm warnings in Northeast for noreaster bringing snow, wind

Winter storm warnings are in effect for much of the Northeast ahead of a nor’easter that should bring heavy snow, strong winds and coastal flooding late Monday night and Tuesday. The National Weather Service is warning that snowfall rates could reach 2 inches per hour between Tuesday morning and afternoon, making for difficult and dangerous travel conditions in the hardest-hit locations.

The agency is also cautioning that the heft of the snow combined with strong winds could damage trees and knock out power. But the forecast for what areas will see the heaviest snow is proving to be difficult.

“This fast-moving Nor’easter is still forecast to produce a swath of snow exceeding 6″, though for areas a little farther south than the previous forecast in the central Appalachians, northern Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England,” the Weather Service wrote Monday evening.

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As Monday progressed, meteorologists expressed astonishment at the significant shift south in the storm track simulated in computer models, which reduced the snowfall forecast around Boston but increased it just north and west of Philadelphia.

Boston’s projected snowfall dropped from 7 to 13 inches to 4 to 8 inches. But in Philadelphia’s north and west suburbs, previously predicted to see just an inch or so, the forecast increased to 3 to 5 inches. In downtown Philadelphia, temperatures may be too mild for much more than an inch.

Farther south, mostly rain is expected around Washington and Baltimore, but a possible brief period of snow is possible before the storm pulls away; the Weather Service said a slushy accumulation is possible in the north and west suburbs of the two cities.

The sweet spot for accumulating snow, previously expected from around Scranton, Pa., to Boston, has shifted to between Allentown, Pa., and Providence, R.I., where 5 to 10 inches could fall between Monday night and Tuesday. While heavy, these maximum totals are decreases from previous projections of at least 8 to 12 inches as model forecasts on Monday afternoon not only simulated a more southern storm track but also a somewhat less intense storm.

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Overall, more than 45 million people are under winter weather alerts from the panhandle of West Virginia to northern Massachusetts.

The storm follows an unusually mild weekend in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where temperatures reached the 50s and 60s. Snow cover is well below normal for this time of year across the contiguous United States due to a recent nationwide warm spell.

Forecast for the I-95 corridor

New York City

Rain should arrive from the south Monday night around midnight. As the precipitation becomes heavier and temperatures cool to the lower 30s, it should change to snow from north to south around 3 to 6 a.m., perhaps mixing with sleet during the transition. Snow could be moderate to heavy at times during the morning commute before leaving from west to east in the early afternoon. Long Island, especially eastern sections, could get a mix of snow, sleet and rain later into the morning.

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The Weather Service is predicting around 4 to 8 inches in the city and Long Island, but amounts could be lower than that if temperatures don’t cool enough. The forecast increases to 6 to 9 inches in the Lower Hudson Valley.

Small shifts in the storm track could bump these forecast totals higher or lower.

Winds on Tuesday and Tuesday night could gust 30 to 40 mph around the city and 40 to 50 mph on Long Island.

Latest update on the winter storm impacting the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England later tonight into Tuesday. There has been a notable southward shift in the expected axis of heaviest snow compared to previous forecasts. pic.twitter.com/HrNG85fiAH

A mix of rain and snow should arrive early Tuesday around 4 to 7 a.m., then change to all snow around 7 to 9 a.m. as temperatures drop to near or below freezing, making deteriorating conditions during the morning commute. The snow should be moderate to heavy at times before moving out by early Tuesday evening.

Snow totals are predicted to range from 4 to 8 inches, according to the Weather Service, a decrease in earlier forecasts of up to 7 to 13 inches.

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Small shifts in the storm track could move these forecast totals higher or lower. The entire area is under a winter storm warning.

Winds could gust 30 mph to 45 mph Tuesday around Boston, and 40 mph to 55 mph on Cape Cod. Moderate coastal flooding is possible in eastern Massachusetts, where the Weather Service is predicting a surge as high as 3.5 feet at the time of Tuesday afternoon’s high tide.

Philadelphia

Scattered rain showers should develop Monday by 6 p.m., becoming steadier during the evening and heavy at times overnight into Tuesday morning. The rain could mix with or change to snow around 6 a.m. to 9 a.m., perhaps mixing with sleet, before moving out from west to east by around noon.

It looks like temperatures will remain above freezing, which should limit snow potential in the city to around 1 inch. But amounts could quickly increase to several inches just north and west of the city, where winter weather advisories are in effect. Small shifts in the storm track could change the forecast to a snowier one.

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Winds on Tuesday could gust 25 mph to 35 mph.

Washington and Baltimore

Scattered rain showers could develop Monday afternoon around 2 to 5 p.m. The rain should become steadier during the evening and should be heavy at times overnight. It may mix with or change to snow around 6 to 9 a.m. Tuesday, especially north and northwest of the cities, before the precipitation leaves the area from west to east around 10 a.m. to noon.

Temperatures should remain above freezing throughout the storm, with only a chance of a light snow accumulation, mainly north and northwest of Washington and Baltimore. Winter weather advisories are in effect for Baltimore as well as Washington’s far north and west suburbs.

Winds could gust 30 mph to 40 mph on Tuesday afternoon.

Interior and mountain snow

Interior snowfall could reach 5 to 10 inches across much of east central Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley, Connecticut, parts of Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. Much of this region is under a winter storm warning.

Lesser amounts, around 3 to 6 inches, are probable for Western Maryland, northwest Virginia and northeast West Virginia. Shifts in the storm track could cause those totals to fluctuate up or down a few inches.

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